
Best Picture:
Will Win: 1917
Might Win: Parasite
Look, if Parasite can pull this off, it will be one of the most genuinely amazing Oscars victories of the last…20 years? But don’t hold your breath. Despite broad love and a Screen Actors Guild victory, this is 1917‘s to lose: After winning the Golden Globe, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the BAFTA, it’s a functional lock for Best Picture.
The proper comparison here is Roma last year, a movie I got tricked into predicting would win Best Picture. Despite winning Director, Roma could not pick up both International Feature and Best Picture, and it seems like that’s going to continue to be the trend.
Having said that, the Best Director category makes this something of an interesting race (I guess?): Since the Oscars moved to a weight ballot system for Picture in 2011, Picture and Director have gone to two different movies five times, and the same movie three times (The Artist, Birdman, The Shape of Water). There is a demonstrable shift in how Director is awarded–often to more technically complex movies (like 1917), with Picture going to the more “generally popular” movies the Academy likes to reward (with the exception of last year’s Movie That Shall Not Be Named). So it’s possible–though unlikely–Mendes will win Director as part of a 6 or so win evening for 1917, while Parasite wins 3-4 (Picture, International Feature, Screenplay, and maybe Editing).
The other recent history folks making this argument will point to is 2016, where La La Land won all the major awards 1917 has, won 6 Oscars including Director, and still lost–famously–to Moonlight. But that year was a clear anomaly, and part of what made Moonlight‘s victory so special (envelop faux pas aside) was that it was an actual upset.
Don’t use anomalies to make bets. The consensus is around 1917.
Best Director
Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Could Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Golden Globe + DGA + BAFTA mostly lock this for Mendes.
Best Actor
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
The acting categories are all a snooze fest this year in terms of competition, but at least three actors I adore will finally get Oscars. And also Renee Zellweger will get a second Oscar.
Best Actress
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
After winning the Writers Guild and the BAFTA, Parasite is in a good position here and I would love to see it win (and if it wins here, that can add some fuel to the fire of its potential upset at night’s end). Tarantino has the Globe and broad support for his film. He’s won this category twice (most recently, with Django Unchained), which both helps and hurts him here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Taikka Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
I’m leaning on Jojo winning after it nabbed both the BAFTA and WGA, but The Irishman won the Scripter Award and jeez I just want Little Women to win this so dang much. Really hoping for a delightful surprise in this category.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Klaus
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: For Sama
Best International Feature
Will Win: Parasite
Best Cinematography
Will Win: 1917
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Little Women
Jojo won the Costume Designers Guild, where Little Women was somehow NOT nominated, and Women won the BAFTA. I have a slight hunch Jojo will repeat at the Oscars because of the film’s broad appeal, but Costume Design is usually a place for a film to earn its only win, and it is a category that routinely awards period pieces with lots of dresses.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Parasite
This one seems largely between Parasite and Ford v. Ferrari, the latter of which is exactly the kind of movie that wins this category quite often. Both seem like very solid predictions. I’d say Parasite needs to win here if it’s ultimately going to upset the evening.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Bombshell
Best Production Design
Will Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
I’m betting on OUaT‘s “home field advantage”–its recreation of late-60s Los Angeles is one of its major selling points, and can edge out 1917, the other likely candidate to win this. If 1917 wins here, it could be part of a wider, 7-8 win evening.
Best Score
Will Win: Joker
Best Song
Will Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
One of the moments I’m most looking forward to, actually.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: 1917
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: 1917
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: 1917
Although really want The Irishman to just win something.